Monday, January 31, 2011

An analysis of the Tenang by –elections from the Indian perspective.

Here is an initial analysis of the Indian votes in Tenang:
Total Indians voted1104694
Indian votes for BN550555
Indians voted for PR554144
This analysis is very telling.
1) What BN got in 2008, it was able to defend in 2011.
2) PR lost support of almost 400 Indian voters 2008- 2011.
3) But that did not mean BN got those lost votes. These Indian voters very smartly just abstained from voting either PR or BN– they just stayed home on a rainy day. The rains make more difference to them than either BN or PR.
Now, playing HRP and HINDRAF into this Tenang election could produce a picture like this –
1) 90%,of the Indians would have come out to vote if HRP/Hindraf were a factor in this election- in spite of the rain.
2) That will be 1500 voters who would have voted.
3) All those who abstained would very likely have voted HRP/HINDRAF.
4) That is already about 950 voters.
5) Then add about half those who voted BN vote for HRP, that will be another 275.
6) That makes for a total of 1,200 votes.
7) A swing of over 1000 votes would have occurred.
8) If PR takes HRP as its equal partner then all these votes would have gone to PR.
9) The margin here would not have been 3707, it would have been 1707.
All fthe above does not even consider the “oomph” factor that HINDRAF/HRP would have introduced into this election, hed they been a factor.
Does PR have the vision to see where HRP/HINDRAF stands or will they foolishly keep repeating that the HINDRAF factor is all but lost.
Clearly there is a serious leadership vacuum for the Indians that only HRP and HINDRAF can fill . No amount of screwing around this idea by PR or anyone else is going to help PR in the least. Getting to Putrajaya seems to be an increasingly receding vision for PR, the more they screw around. Latest, is their attempt to get Surendran on their side. Did that help? They still lost Indian support, big time,in Tenang.
What we see increasingly in these by elections is a sample from which to conclude about what could happen in a General Election. If PR wants to get to Putrajaya there is no alternative for them but to sit down and hammer out a deal with HRP/HINDRAF, before the window shuts

Best Regards